Report Details How Climate Change Will Spark Heat Waves, Increase the Spread of Disease, and Erode Coastal Economies

According to the recent report from the United States Global Change Research Program, rising greenhouse gas emissions will damage human health and welfare in regions across the country. Among the many changes climate change will bring are more frequent heat waves, greater risks for the spread of disease, and damage to the marine life and fisheries that are the backbone of many coastal economies. The Union of Concerned Scientists offers several climate change factsheets summarizing impacts presented in the report by region, and here we plot some key predicted effects on the Human Toll of Climate Change Map.

Heat Waves

Heat waves will become more frequent and intense in both the lower and higher emissions scenarios described by the USGCRP report. In fact, by the end of the century, the average U.S. temperature will increase by between 4 and 11ºF, depending on emissions. Heat waves similar to the 1995 Chicago heat wave that claimed over 700 lives are estimated to occur every other year in Chicago by 2100 in a lower emissions scenario and as many as three times a year in a higher emissions scenario. As a result, annual heat-related deaths in Chicago are expected to increase from about 175 deaths in 1980 to over 400 by 2090 in a lower emission scenario. In the higher emissions scenario, heat-related deaths are projected to reach 1,200. By the 2090s, annual heat-related deaths in Los Angeles may increase by two to seven times the baseline of 165 deaths observed in the 1990s. The report also predicts that the Southeast will suffer more heat-related illness and death in summer months.

Declines in Human Health

Climate change threatens public health. Insects that carry diseases, such as ticks and mosquitoes, will survive winters and produce larger populations, the report warns. In addition to insect vector diseases like West Nile virus, water-borne diseases will become more prevalent as pathogens thrive in warmer Midwestern climates. More frequent heavy downpours that overwhelm drainage systems are expected to increase the risk of water-borne disease in the Northeast. The report also forecasts more shellfish-borne disease outbreaks in the Southeast since coastal water temperatures will rise significantly in both emissions scenarios.

Costs for Coastal Economies

Fisheries that contribute to the economies of coastal regions will be jeopardized if emissions are not reduced. The report predicts smaller harvests of marine species in Alaska due to changes in ice edge extent and location. As a result, commercial fisheries are expected to be farther from existing fishing ports, requiring relocation or greater investment in transportation time and fuel costs. The current overfishing problem in Hawaii and other U.S. islands in the Pacific Ocean is expected to intensify because of an accelerated decline in live corals that sustain fisheries. Fish populations in the continental United States will also suffer from climate change. Since rising water temperatures influence the time and location of spawning, the growth and survival of North Atlantic cod and wild trout will decline, the report projects. Salmon populations in the Northwest are predicted to fall below their already historically low population levels as winter rain replaces snow, clearing streambeds of incubating eggs and damaging spawning nests. A forecasted decline in dissolved oxygen in aquatic habitats will also damage ecosystem diversity in the Southeast.

Tags: Climate Change

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