Kerry’s Energy Wager

Senator John Kerry compares the decision to address carbon emissions with economic and policy reforms to Pascal’s Wager. The French philosopher suggested that belief in a higher power was an inherently superior bet to non-belief, because the rewards of belief were significantly greater. “If we’re wrong” about the disastrous consequences of climate change but nonetheless move to a low carbon economy, explained Kerry this morning at an event hosted by the Center for American Progress Action Fund, “we still have global development, clean air, a stronger economy here at home, healthier citizens, and no more addiction to the foreign oil that funds despots and terrorists. If they’re wrong,” he said, referring to policy makers obstructing progress on emissions reductions, “we face catastrophe.”

During his brief visit to the Bali climate negotiations last week, Kerry explained to diplomats that, in the absence of Federal leadership, local governments and large sectors of the U.S. economy have voluntarily taken the initiative to reduce emissions. He pointed out that “over 500 mayors across our country have pledged to meet or beat the Kyoto targets in their cities.”

But that local action won’t transform the national economy or deliver the necessary emission reductions. Kerry pointed out that the largest hurdle in the wake of Bali will be determining how developed and developing nations interpret the “shared but differentiated responsibility” agreed upon in the framework.

For the Bush administration, “differentiated responsibility,” until Bali, meant continued support for voluntary emissions reductions, an approach finally met with a room full of booing delegates. In Kerry’s assessment, “the Bush White House is increasingly irrelevant to any future agreement.”

Responsible leadership from the U.S. will include not just binding emissions targets and a cap-and-trade system, but a massive technology transfer to developing nations so that they can meet eventual treaty obligations without slowing their economies. Kerry also called for a “Manhattan-Project-sized” initiative to develop renewable energy. The America COMPETES Act established the Advanced Research Project Agency for Energy within the DOE, which could potentially fulfill this role. Kerry also emphasized the importance of carbon capture and sequestration for coal-burning power plants.

While Congress did recently pass landmark energy legislation, which the President today signed into law, raising fuel economy standards and expanding the use of biofuels, those changes are long overdo, and the final bill was stripped of provisions mandating electricity production from renewable sources. “We’d be fooling ourselves if we thought any of the bills that I just articulated are enough,” warned the Senator.

Tags: Climate Change, Energy

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